{"updated": "2026-10-12", "count": 20, "radar": [{"name": "CBAM 正式期（欧盟碳边境）", "deadline": "2026-01-01 已生效", "note": "进口商年度申报+购买证书，隐含排放不足将被征差额；出口方需提交实测数据"}, {"name": "EUDR 零毁林法案（第一批企业）", "deadline": "2025-12-30 已生效", "note": "咖啡/可可/橡胶/棕榈油/大豆/木材/牛制品需尽调声明+地理坐标，第二批中小企业 2026-06-30"}, {"name": "EU AI Act 分阶段实施", "deadline": "2026-08-02", "note": "高风险系统义务生效，通用模型透明度要求；涉欧 AI 应用需合规评估"}, {"name": "CSRD/ESRS 报告（第二波）", "deadline": "2027 起（报告 2026 数据）", "note": "大型非欧盟母公司在欧子公司纳入；供应链数据将被欧洲客户层层索要"}, {"name": "欧盟电池与废电池法规", "deadline": "2027-02-18", "note": "电池护照强制实施，碳足迹声明分批生效，动力电池出口企业需提前布局"}, {"name": "美国 UFLPA 实体清单动态", "deadline": "滚动更新", "note": "输美货物需供应链可追溯证明，被列入实体清单后溯及既往"}, {"name": "中国两用物项出口管制目录", "deadline": "滚动更新", "note": "镓锗石墨及军民两用技术管制趋严，许可申请周期需计入交期"}, {"name": "欧盟 GPSR 通用产品安全", "deadline": "2024-12-13 已生效", "note": "对欧消费品需欧盟境内责任人+技术文档，电商平台已执行下架"}, {"name": "个保法数据出境（中国）", "deadline": "持续", "note": "安全评估/标准合同/认证三路径，跨国企业年报季前完成梳理"}, {"name": "CBAM 证书首次财务结算", "deadline": "2027-02", "note": "2026 年度排放对应证书将于 2027 年 2 月完成清算，现金流需提前规划"}, {"name": "红海航运安全局势与绕行成本", "deadline": "滚动更新", "note": "苏伊士通行受限推高亚欧运价与战争险费率；好望角绕行+中欧班列陆桥方案需求上升"}, {"name": "霍尔木兹海峡通行与能源保险", "deadline": "滚动更新", "note": "海峡局势直接影响油价/LNG 价格与船险；能源类出口企业需预设运费与保险联动条款"}, {"name": "OFAC/EU/UK 制裁名单与二级制裁动态", "deadline": "滚动更新", "note": "涉俄/涉伊链条 50% 规则与二级制裁外溢；签约前必须全链筛查并写入合规陈述条款"}, {"name": "俄乌停火谈判与重建采购窗口", "deadline": "事件驱动", "note": "停火一旦落地，基建/建材/电力设备/车辆重建采购将快速释放；备位供应商名录需提前建立"}, {"name": "加沙/黎巴嫩/伊拉克重建框架与国际招标", "deadline": "滚动更新", "note": "海湾主权基金+国际机构重建融资逐步落地，关注 UNDP/世界银行/海湾基金采购公告"}, {"name": "金砖扩容与本币结算机制", "deadline": "持续扩展", "note": "新成员市场准入与本币结算（CIPS/代理行）通道加速；人民币跨境结算占比持续上升"}, {"name": "美国对等关税与 301 动态", "deadline": "滚动更新", "note": "对华高压延续叠加欧美贸易摩擦；原产地重构（实质性加工标准）需求刚性增长"}, {"name": "中国稀土/两用物项出口管制再升级", "deadline": "滚动更新", "note": "关键矿产与技术出口许可趋严；交期测算需计入许可周期，海外买家提前锁量"}, {"name": "欧盟双速欧洲/一体化裂痕风险", "deadline": "情景观察", "note": "成员国立场分化将催生国别化采购与「绕布鲁塞尔」双边协议；提前锁定国别渠道与本地合伙人，布局国别准入而非泛欧布局"}, {"name": "欧盟防务再武装与钢材料缺口", "deadline": "2026-2028 持续", "note": "军备与基建钢需求激增叠加本土产能不足；中国钢企以 CBAM 达标+材料认证切入正当合作窗口"}]}